A Sage Adviser Says The Government Has Sent The Wrong Message To People By Relaxing Coronavirus Rules At Christmas
6 min read
A Sage adviser says the government has sent the wrong message to people by relaxing Coronavirus rules at Christmas, saying it has given people the false idea it is safe to meet up with others.
Professor Steven Reicher told PoliticsHome he believed that last month’s announcement that three households would be allowed to meet up for the festive period had sent the wrong message to the public.
“The strongest message you have is in your policies,” Reicher said.
“What the rules have done, is message that it’s okay to meet up when it clearly isn’t in terms of public health.”
It comes after the Prime Minister sought to toughen up the guidance on Christmas bubbles after calls for the rules to be looked at again, as Covid-19 cases continue to rise.
There has been criticism directed at Number 10 for announcing the unlocking of measures between 23 and 27 December almost a month before Christmas, and the suggestion the policy was based on the belief that if stricter rules were kept in place people would disregard them.
The justification for the government’s relaxed rules over Christmas despite the rising cases appears ever more difficult to pin down.
One minister suggested the rules had been based on behavioural factors and the public’s mental health, rather than the case numbers.
They told PoliticsHome: “In terms of a consistent approach if you are solely aiming to bear down on the virus why would you have five days easing off? If you are only going to take the health advice in isolation, you wouldn’t risk creating a spike.”
“That’s the challenge with this. Because there’s a mental health element to this and it’s also a matter of compassion and understanding. Many people will be tempted to do their own thing anyway so it’s a matter of achieving a difficult balance including personal responsibility.”
Mr Johnson himself appeared to admit non-compliance was a factor in the policy, telling a Downing Street press conference on November 26: “You’ve got to strike a balance between people’s strong desire to celebrate a family holiday, perhaps one of the most important family holidays of the year – which they frankly are going to do anyway – and the need to keep the virus under control.”
Speaking to PolHome Professor Reicher, who sits on the SPI-B panel advising Sage on behavioural issues, said: “That’s one of the arguments that is made, that we have to roll with it because if we stay rigid then then we’ll just lose control – that was the argument.”
He said YouGov polling showed before the announcement about Christmas 16% of people said they were planning to meet up with others, but afterwards that rose to 40%.
Prof Reicher, who researches the issues of group behaviour at St Andrews University, added: “Now, of course, you can’t say that will be entirely due to the announcement itself, it could have been that people were making their mind up and more would have anyway, but it does nonetheless suggest that it may have been.
“Not that the relaxation was in response to large numbers of people planning to meet up, but it actually caused it.
He added: “When people talk about messaging, the strongest message you have is in your policies, because everybody knows the policies, not everybody hears the messaging around them.
“So if you say to people, in effect, it’s okay to meet up to give them permission to meet up, it’s not too much of a stretch to infer that ‘well, it’s okay, it’s fine, it’s safe’, that’s a fairly easy slippage.
“And I think the problem is, we haven’t messaged clearly enough, that no, it’s not safe.”
On whether it is wrong to try and make policies based on the idea of non compliance, he said: “I think throughout the pandemic there has been a notion of psychological frailty of the public, which has misinformed policy.
“I say misinformed because I think it has been very damaging. So at the beginning, we had all this stuff about behavioural fatigue – not coming from behavioural scientists – that we needed to delay lockdown, because people can only put up with it for so long.
“And then everybody was taken aback by the levels of compliance with the restrictions.”
He said there has been high compliance with all the rules except for self-isolation, which is because it’s practically and financially difficult.
“So in other words, instead of berating people and wagging your finger at them, you support them,” he said.
“I think one of the problems is that government has taken a stance of blaming individuals for their psychological frailty and ticking them off and threatening them with punishment when it would be far more effective to provide support.
“Not only would you make it possible, you would motivate people by making them think that government is on their side. So again, those notions of frailty turned out to be false.
There have been joint calls by the British Medical Journal and Health Service Journal to change the rules, which Mr Johnson has rejected in favour of tougher messaging.
Prof Reicher said it has been a problem “all the way through that we’ve focused on rules, not risks”, and the government hasn’t explained why the rules have been made.
“That’s why it was so daft of Matt Hancock to talk about ‘stick the rules’ – if everybody sticks to the three household rule, we are deep in trouble,” Prof Reicher explained.
“The point is to say ‘look, we’re going to be given a bit of flexibility for exceptional cases, but if you’re not an exceptional case, it really doesn’t make sense’, and then help people, give them the information they need to make an informed choice.
“And to understand why for them it doesn’t make sense for them to take advantage of that flexibility.”
A senior government source suggested it had been clear throughout the pandemic that the majority of people comply with the Covid-19 rules when they are set out but that a very small minority do not.
Decisions that feed into the Christmas rules are based on a “wide range of evidence based policy making”, they suggested.
The Prime Minister’s official spokesperson was asked specifically if the government had any data to show that the public would flout the rules over Christmas had they remained in place.
He said: “More broadly…we continue with medical advice and listen to medical professionals and scientists as we have done throughout the pandemic to inform the decisions we take.”
“We’ve always been clear we want allow families to meet up,” he said.
Pelosi to move forward with impeachment if Pence doesn’t act to remove Trump
“In protecting our Constitution and our Democracy, we will act with urgency, because this President represents an imminent threat to both,” Pelosi said in the letter to Democrats on Sunday night laying out next steps.
The House will try to pass a measure on Monday imploring Pence to invoke the 25th Amendment, through which he and the Cabinet declare Trump “incapable of executing the duties of his office, after which the Vice President would immediately exercise powers as acting president.” If Republicans object, as is virtually certain, Democrats will pass the bill via a roll call vote on Tuesday.
“We are calling on the Vice President to respond within 24 hours,” Pelosi wrote. “Next, we will proceed with bringing impeachment legislation to the Floor.”
But it’s not clear when exactly the Senate will take up the House’s measure. The Senate isn’t scheduled to return until Jan. 19, but will hold pro forma sessions on Tuesday and Friday. In theory, a senator could try to pass the House resolution by unanimous consent, but as of now it appears unlikely that it would pass.
On Monday, multiple House Democrats plan to introduce impeachment resolutions that would become the basis of any impeachment article considered by the House later this week.
Rep. David Cicilline (D-R.I.), who will introduce an article of impeachment against Trump on Monday, said on Sunday that roughly 200 Democrats have co-sponsored the measure.
Currently, 211 voting members (plus three nonvoting members) support Cicilline’s legislation, and they are hoping to reach 217 voting members by Monday morning, enough for the House to impeach Trump, one Democratic source familiar with the matter told POLITICO.
A small number of Democrats have opted not to co-sign the bill, but privately say they will vote to support the resolution on the floor, the source added.
The impeachment effort in the House is likely to be bipartisan, with Democrats expecting at least one GOP lawmaker — Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois — to sign on. A handful of other House Republicans are seriously weighing it, according to several sources, though those lawmakers are waiting to see how Democrats proceed, and some are concerned about dividing the country even further.
Among the GOP members whom Democrats are keeping an eye on are Reps. John Katko of New York, Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, Fred Upton of Michigan, Liz Cheney of Wyoming and Jaime Herrera Beutler of Washington.
Across the Capitol, at least two Republicans — Sens. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska — have called on Trump to resign. On Saturday, Toomey told Fox News, “I do think the president committed impeachable offenses,” but told CNN the next day that he does not believe there is enough time to impeach.
Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) has also said he would consider articles of impeachment.
Another option has emerged among some Republican and moderate Democratic circles — censuring Trump — though it remains highly unlikely to advance.
A censure resolution would gain far more support in the GOP than impeachment. Some Republicans have privately been pushing for that route and are trying to get Biden on board, according to GOP sources. That group of Republicans is also warning that impeachment could destroy Biden’s reputation with Republicans.
But censure is considered a nonstarter in an incensed House Democratic Caucus, where members see it as a slap on the wrist that gives Republicans an easy out.
The Democrats’ enormous step toward impeachment on Sunday comes after Pelosi and other top Democrats held a private call on Saturday night in which they discussed the potential ramifications that a lengthy impeachment trial could have on Biden’s presidency.
Democratic leaders discussed several options to limit the political effects on Biden’s first 100 days, with one option — floated by House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) — for the House to delay the start of an impeachment trial in the Senate by holding on to the article of impeachment.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has sent out a memo to senators explaining that the Senate could not take up impeachment until Jan. 19 at the earliest, absent unanimous consent.
A final decision has not been made, and House Democrats will discuss the matter on a 2 p.m. caucus call on Monday.
Lawmakers are already privately expressing concerns about returning to the Capitol for multiple days this week, worried about both a potential coronavirus outbreak and whether the building is secure, given how easily an armed pro-Trump mob invaded on Wednesday.
The Capitol physician urged House lawmakers and staff to get tested in a memo Sunday, saying they might have been exposed to someone who had the virus while huddling for safety in a large committee room for hours on Wednesday. During the hourslong lockdown, several Republican members refused to wear masks despite being offered them by Democrats worried about the spread of the deadly virus.
Melanie Zanona, Olivia Beavers and Marianne LeVine contributed to this report.
Matt Hancock Scraps “Unnecessary Training Modules” Blamed For Slowing Vaccine Rollout
5 min read
Matt Hancock said people will no longer need to undertake training including an anti-terrorism course to give the coronavirus jab after MPs said “bureaucratic rubbish” was delaying mass vaccination.
It comes as MPs called for the government to produce targets for the number of people given immunity before lockdown can be lifted.
The health secretary said a series of “unnecessary training modules” are being scrapped to speed up the process of getting people qualified to deliver the jab.
Speaking in the Commons, Sir Edward Leigh said he was shown by his fellow the Tory MP, a qualified GP, the “ridiculous form” he had filled out to start delivering the vaccine.
“When he’s inoculating an old lady, he’s not going to ask her if she’s come into contact with Jihadis or whatever, so the Secretary has got to cut through all this bureaucratic rubbish,” he said.
In response Mr Hancock said: “I am a man after Sir Edward’s heart and I can tell the House that we have removed a series of the unnecessary training modules that had been put in place, including fire safety, terrorism and others.
“I’ll write to him with the full panoply of the training that is not required and we have been able to remove, and we made this change as of this morning and I am glad to say it is enforced.
“I am a fan of busting bureaucracy and in this case I agree with him that it is not necessary to undertake anti-terrorism training in order to inject vaccines.”
Dr Fox had earlier challenged Boris Johnson to drop the “bureaucracy” and “political correctness” of the forms vaccine volunteers must fill out.
He told MPs: “As a qualified but non-practising doctor, I volunteered to help with the scheme and would urge others to do the same.
“But, can I ask the Prime Minister why I’ve been required to complete courses on conflict resolution, equality, diversity and human rights, moving and handling loads and preventing radicalisation in order to give a simple Covid jab?”
Mr Johnson said he had been “assured by the Health Secretary that all such obstacles, all such pointless pettifoggery has been removed”.
The government has been attempting to recruit thousands of volunteers to help with a mass vaccination programme, and with the recent approval of the more easily deliverable Oxford/AstraZeneca version has today revealed the location of seven mass vaccination centres set to open next week.
The Prime Minister’s official spokesman told journalists at a briefing they would be at Robertson House in Stevenage, the ExCel Centre in London, the Centre for Life in Newcastle, the Etihad Tennis Centre in Manchester, Epsom Downs Racecourse in Surrey, Ashton Gate Stadium in Bristol and Millennium Point in Birmingham, and it is expected they will be run with a combination of NHS staff and volunteers.
But so far the government has not said how many people need to be inoculated before it has an impact on the coronavirus restrictions.
Mr Hancock was asked by a number of MPs if the measures could be eased once the top few tiers in the vaccine priority list had been clear.
Former Conservative chief whip Mark Harper said once the top four groups, which includes care home residents and staff, frontline NHS workers, the clinically extremely vulnerable and everyone over 70 “we’ve taken care therefore of 80% of the risk of death”.
Adding: “What possible reason is there at that point for not rapidly relaxing the restrictions that are in place on the rest of our country?”
The health secretary replied: “We have to see the impact of that vaccination on the reduction in the number of deaths, which I very much hope that we will see at that point, and so that is why we will take this – an evidence-led move down through the tiers, when we’ve broken the link, I hope, between cases and hospitalisations and deaths.”
The ex-Tory minister and another doctor, Andrew Murrison, said: “The logic of anticipating what is going to happen in two or three or four weeks’ time from the number of cases we are getting at the moment is that we can do the same in reverse.
“That is to say, when we have a sufficient number of people vaccinated up we can anticipate in two or three or four weeks’ time how many deaths have been avoided.
“That means, since it cuts both ways he will be able to make a decision on when we should end these restrictions.”
Mr Hancock replied: “The logic of the case that Dr Murrison makes is the right logic and we want to see that happen in empirical evidence on the ground.
“This hope for the weeks ahead doesn’t take away, though, from the serious and immediate threat posed now.”
The Cabinet minister said the challenge for the government is to increase the amount of doses available, claiming “the current rate-limiting factor on the vaccine rollout is the supply of approved, tested, safe vaccine”.
He added: ”We are working with both AstraZeneca and Pfizer to increase that supply as fast as possible and they’re doing a brilliant job.”
But Labour’s shadow health secretary Jonathan Ashworth called for the government to ramp up its vaccination programme to six million doses a week.
He told the Commons: “The Prime Minister has promised almost 14 million will be offered the vaccine by mid-Feb. That depends on around two million doses a week on average.
“Both [Mr Hancock] and the Prime Minister have reassured us in recent days that it’s doable based on orders.
“But in the past ministers have told us that they had agreements for 30 million AstraZeneca doses by September 2020 and 10 million of Pfizer doses by the end of 2020.
“So, I think people just want to understand the figures and want clarity. Can ministers tell us how many of the ordered doses have been manufactured?”
Mr Ashworth added: “Two million a week would be fantastic but it should be the limit of our ambitions, we should be aiming to scale up to three, then five, then six million jabs a week over the coming months.”
How South African police are tackling pangolin smugglers
Quiet, solitary and nocturnal, the pangolin has few natural enemies, but researchers believe it is the most trafficked mammal in the world. The tough scales covering its body are sought after for use in Chinese medicine, in the erroneous belief that they have healing properties.
The animal has also been of interest to researchers during the coronavirus pandemic. Related viruses have been found in trafficked pangolins, though there is continued uncertainty around early theories that pangolins were involved in the transmission of the virus from animals to humans.
After South African police seized a pangolin from suspected smugglers, BBC Africa correspondent Andrew Harding witnessed how vets tried to save the animal’s life.
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