Patrick Vallance Says The UK Could See 200 Deaths A Day If People Don’t Stick To The Rules To Prevent The Spread Of Coronavirus
4 min read
The UK could see more than 200 deaths a day from coronavirus in November if people do not stick to the rules on halting the spread of the disease, according to the country’s top scientists.
In a dire warning to the nation ahead of a potential second lockdown, the chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance said at the current rate of spread there will be 50,000 new infections per day recorded in mid-October.
And in a televised press conference alongside the chief medical officer Chris Whitty he said this would lead to a massive increase in hospitalisations and eventually fatalities from Covid-19.
Speaking the day before Boris Johnson is expected to unveil further restrictions in a statement to the House of Commons, he compared the UK’s surging infection rates to the situation in France and Spain, which had seen a similar rise several weeks ago.
“It started with younger people in their 20s and spread gradually to older ages as well,” he said.
“That increasing case number has translated into an increase in hospitalisations. As the hospitalisations have increased you will see that very sadly, but not unexpectedly, deaths are also increasing.”
Sir Patrick said there is a “simple message” from this comparison, which is that unless the disease is put under control it will lead to a rise in fatalities.
He said roughly 70,000 people in the UK currently have Covid-19 and about 6,000 more per day are getting the infection, then showed a slide projecting what such increases could lead to, though he added it was “not a prediction, but it is a way of thinking about how quickly this can change”.
The chief scientific adviser said: “At the moment we think that the epidemic is doubling roughly every seven days, could be a little bit longer, a little bit shorter, but let’s say roughly every seven days.
“And that’s quite a big if – but if that continues unabated, and this grows, doubling every seven days then what you see, of course, let’s say there were 5,000 today, will be 10,000 next week 20,000 the week after 40,000 the week after.
“And you can see that by mid-October, if that continued, you would end up with something like 50,000 cases in the middle of October per day.”
He added: “50,000 cases per day would be expected to lead a month later, so the middle of November, to 200 plus deaths.”
Speaking after him, Professor Whitty hinted further curbs on people’s social lives could be needed to slow down the increase in infections.
He said: “You cannot in an epidemic just take your own risk, unfortunately you’re taking a risk on behalf of everybody else. It’s important that we see this as something we have to do collectively.”
Of all the things needed to reduce the risk of spread, he said “the most difficult is that we have to break unnecessary links between households, because that is the way in which this virus is transmitted.”
Professor Whitty added: “And this means reducing social contacts whether they are at work, and this is where we have enormous gratitude to all the businesses for example who have worked so hard to make their environments Covid-secure to reduce the risk, and also in social environments.
“We all know we cannot do this without some significant downsides.
“This is a balance of risk between if we don’t do enough the virus will take off – and at the moment that is the path we’re clearly on – and if we do not change course we are going to find ourselves in a very difficult problem.”
Downing Street has confirmed the Prime Minister will hold a series of calls with the devolved leaders around the UK this afternoon ahead of a statement to MPs tomorrow.
While Mr Johnson speaks to the First Ministers of Scotland and Wales, and the First Minister and Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland, the government’s coronavirus strategy committee and coronavirus operations committee featuring senior ministers and officials will meet.
And tomorrow morning the PM will chair the first Cobra emergency meeting for several months on Covid-19, ahead of a meeting of the Cabinet where they are expected to sign off on changes to the restrictions.
Over the weekend senior ministers were briefed by Professor Whitty, Sir Patrick and the chief economic adviser at the Treasury, Clare Lombardelli, on potential measures.
India’s Ranjitsinh Disale wins 2020 Global Teacher Prize and splits it with runners-up
Ranjitsinh Disale, a teacher at Zilla Parishad Primary School, in the village of Paritewadi in the western Indian state of Maharashtra, was chosen as winner from more than 12,000 nominations and applications, from over 140 countries around the world.
The award recognized his efforts to promote girls’ education at the school, whose pupils are mostly from tribal communities.
The Global Teacher Prize said he learned the local language of the village in order to translate class textbooks into his pupils’ mother tongue.
He also created unique QR codes on the textbooks to give students access to audio poems, video lectures, stories and assignments, greatly improving school attendance. His QR technology is now being rolled out more widely across India.
Rather than keeping all his winnings, Disale told Fry in an interview that he would share the prize with the other nine finalists, giving them $55,000 each — the first time anyone has done so in the award’s six-year history.
He told Fry: “I believe that if I share this prize money with nine teachers it means I can scale up their work. Their incredible work is still worthy… If I share the prize money with the rest of the teachers they will get a chance to continue their work… and we can reach out and lighten the lives of as many students as we can.”
“Educating young children, especially from poor and needy backgrounds is perhaps the best way to help them as individuals, and actively contributes to creating a better world,” he said.
The award’s nine runners-up are teachers working in the United States, Britain, Vietnam, Nigeria, South Africa, Italy, South Korea, Malaysia and Brazil.
Pelosi eyes combining Covid aid with mammoth spending deal
Pelosi said the $908 billion proposal released this week by a centrist group of Senate and House members helped restart the stimulus talks, which fell apart just before the election after months of dragging on with little real movement.
“There is momentum — there is momentum with the action that the senators and House members in a bipartisan way have taken,” Pelosi said Friday, in the latest sign that negotiators are closing in on a deal. “The tone of our conversations is one that is indicative of the decision to get the job done.”
President-elect Joe Biden on Friday said he’s “encouraged” by the $908 billion proposal, framing it as the type of bipartisan work that he hopes to foster as president. He cautioned that “any package passed in the lame duck session is not going to be enough overall.”
But hurdles remain. Government funding runs out in just one week, and there are still a sizable number of issues impeding an agreement on a massive spending package that would increase agency budgets for the rest of the fiscal year.
The sheer number of outstanding items at such a late stage makes it increasingly likely that congressional negotiators will require a brief stopgap spending bill to complete their work before leaving for the holidays. Such a decision could be made early next week if lawmakers fail to make significant progress over the weekend.
Pelosi demurred when asked about the possibility of a short-term stopgap to buy more time for talks, and dismissed the need for a longer term continuing resolution that would extend current government funding into early next year.
“We will take the time that we need,” Pelosi said, while acknowledging that a number of issues remain, including some outside of appropriators’ jurisdiction.
“Don’t worry about a date,” she added.
While appropriators in both chambers remain optimistic that they’ll finish their work before the holidays, Republicans and Democrats are still swapping offers and arguing over details, kicking some of the most difficult items up to congressional leaders.
For example, a House Democratic aide close to the talks said Republicans want to scrub any mentions of Covid-19 from the omnibus package entirely. Earlier this year, House Democrats added coronavirus relief to their slate of fiscal 2021 appropriations bills, while Senate Republicans have insisted that pandemic aid remain totally separate from annual appropriations measures.
Republicans are also objecting to funding for research on reducing racial and ethnic inequalities in the justice system, in addition to language that would require the Capitol Police to report on policies and procedures on eliminating unconscious bias and racial profiling during training, the Democratic aide said.
Republicans, meanwhile, are accusing Democrats of holding up omnibus talks by insisting on the removal of two Interior-Environment policy riders that have been included in annual spending bills for years. The provisions involve protections for the greater sage-grouse, in addition to a provision related to the carbon neutrality of forest biomass.
“Dredging these up right now is beyond counterproductive,” a GOP aide familiar with the talks said Thursday night.
Funding for President Donald Trump’s border wall also remains a perennial sticking point — Senate Republicans have proposed $2 billion for fiscal 2021, which began on Oct. 1. House Democrats have proposed no extra cash.
Lawmakers have also disagreed on detention beds for detained migrants in recent days, although Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) — the top Senate Democrat who oversees funding for the Department of Homeland Security — said Thursday that issue may get solved without the help of leadership.
Also in question is whether the White House will ultimately support a package that classifies billions of dollars in veterans’ health care spending as “emergency” spending outside of strict budget limits. Both House Appropriations Chair Nita Lowey and Senate Appropriations Chair Richard Shelby are moving forward with their negotiations assuming that’s the case, since the White House has previously signed off on such an arrangement.
Pelosi on Friday also said that whatever coronavirus relief they include in the government funding bill will not be the last time Congress addresses the ongoing pandemic, which continues to devastate the U.S., killing more than 275,000 Americans and causing a sharp downturn in the economy. The U.S. saw the deadliest day ever on Thursday, with Covid-19 fatalities exceeding 2,700.
“President-elect Biden has said that this package would be, just at best, just a start. And that’s how we see it as well,” Pelosi said.
The speaker also defended her decision to hold out for months, demanding a larger deal in the ballpark of $2 trillion or more, only to agree to negotiate this smaller package now. McConnell, similarly, refused to come off his much smaller baseline over the summer — pushing a $500 billion package — resulting in a standoff between congressional leaders.
“That was not a mistake, it was a decision,” Pelosi told reporters, saying the dynamics have significantly shifted since the election of Biden and the quicker than expected vaccine development. “That is a total game changer — a new president and a vaccine.”
With cautious optimism about the prospect of passing some fiscal stimulus to buoy the American economy during a bleak pandemic winter, lawmakers remain hopeful that Congress will pull it together before leaving Washington, despite lingering omnibus headaches.
“You know this place — turns on a dime,” said Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), who was elected by the Democratic caucus on Thursday as the next Appropriations chair.
Sarah Ferris contributed to this story.
Gavin Williamson Claims The UK Approved A Coronavirus Vaccine First Because It Is A “Much Better Country”
2 min read
Gavin Williamson has claimed the UK’s speedy approval of the Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine was due to it being a “much better country” than France, Belgium and the US.
The UK become the first country in the world to approve a clinical vaccine for coronavirus on Wednesday after the medicines regulator, the MHRA, gave the green light for the jab to be rolled out from next week.
The Education Secretary said this is because the UK has the “best medical regulators”, dodging questions about the impact of Brexit on the approval process of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine.
Speaking after the approval announcement on Wednesday, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said that “because of Brexit” the UK regulator had been able to approve the vaccine without having to wait for the European Medicines Agency to do so.
But his claims were later contradicted by both No10 and senior figures within the regulator, with a spokesperson for Boris Johnson insisting the approval was “thanks to the hard work of the MHRA”.
Meanwhile, Dr June Raine, head of the regulatory agency said the green light to roll out the vaccine from next week was made “using provisions under European law which exist until January 1”.
But pressed on the impact of Brexit on the approval process, Mr Williamson instead suggested the approval was down to the UK having “much better” medical regulators than France, Belgium and America.
“Well I just reckon we’ve got the very best people in this country and we’ve obviously got the best medical regulators,” he told LBC
“Much better than the French have, much better than the Belgians have, much better than the Americans have.
“That doesn’t surprise me at all because we’re a much better country that every single one of them, aren’t we.”
He added: “Just being able to get on with things, deliver it and with brilliant people in our medical regulator making it happen means that people in this country are going to be the first ones in the world to get that Pfizer vaccine.”
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