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Now, after painstaking negotiations that resulted in an amicable divorce with the European Union earlier this year, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has instigated a confrontation with Brussels that could turn the nightmare “no-deal” scenario for business into reality.

The UK government said this week that it intends to break the terms of the divorce agreement that settled the country’s departure from the European Union at the end of January. EU officials have given Johnson until the end of this month to abandon his would-be violation of international law.
If he refuses, negotiations on a UK-EU trade deal to replace the transitional agreement that expires at the end of 2020 are likely to collapse, risking border chaos and food shortages, an end to the country’s fragile recovery from its deepest recession on record and years of tepid growth to follow.

What’s more, intentionally breaking international law would make other countries think twice before offering the United Kingdom the free trade deals it desperately needs, damage the country’s reputation as a standard bearer for the rule of law and make it a less attractive destination for startups and foreign investment.

“For a country, without any real thought about where it’s going, to put so much up in the air is hugely unusual and it’s hugely worrying,” said David Henig, the UK director of the European Centre For International Political Economy.

Crashing out

There’s no trading arrangement available to the United Kingdom that can deliver the benefits of continued membership in the European Union, the world’s largest single market area and the destination for 43% of British exports. Leaving the bloc means higher costs for UK companies under any circumstances.

Already, years of uncertainty over the future terms of EU trade have damaged the UK economy. According to analysts at Berenberg, UK GDP grew at a respectable annual rate of 2.4% in the three years leading up to the June 2016 Brexit referendum. That slowed to 1.6% in the years since as business investment stagnated.

Having a new trade deal with the European Union would help limit further damage to businesses as they desperately attempt to recover from the coronavirus pandemic, which caused UK GDP to contract by over 20% in the second quarter, the worst slump on record and the deepest of any major developed economy.

The most damaging scenario, under which the United Kingdom does not secure a new trade agreement and the divorce deal is not honored, could snarl supply chains and cause huge disruption at the border, where customs systems would likely be overwhelmed. That could lead to shortages of food and medicine in Britain.

The UK government estimated in November 2018 that a disorderly end to Britain’s trade relationship with the European Union would reduce output by 7.7% over the next 15 years compared to continued EU membership. And the shock to the pandemic-scarred economy would be immediate.

“A hard exit with few or no intermediate steps to manage the adjustment in key areas like goods trade and financial services could tip the UK back into recession in early 2021,” said Berenberg economist Kallum Pickering in a research note this week.

Pound down

Investors have been rattled by recent events. The British pound has dropped 4% against the dollar to $1.28 since the beginning of September. It could plunge another 10% to $1.15 in a “no-deal” scenario, according to analysts at Capital Economics.

Industry groups have warned of dire consequences. The trucking and transportation companies that bring goods into the United Kingdom said this month that they’re in the dark about IT systems that will be used for customs declarations, as well as changes to infrastructure at the border. There’s not enough time left to hire the tens of thousands of customs agents before the end of the year.

The British Retail Consortium said this week that consumers should be prepared for higher prices and reduced availability of products, warning that a disorderly break with Europe would lead to worse disruption than the coronavirus pandemic. Demand for food products from Europe, which would face an average tariff of 22%, is highest in January.

“In a no deal, our key supply routes … will be disrupted at a time we heavily rely on imports,” said Andrew Opie, the group’s director of food policy. “Disruption to the supply chain means a reduction in availability, shorter shelf life and more pressure on prices.”

Lorries begin to board a ferry at the UK port of Dover.

Henig said it could take several years for the UK economy to adjust to higher tariffs and other barriers to trade with the European Union. He expects the food and drink, automotive and chemicals industries to suffer most. “I don’t see how a car made in the UK is economically viable with a 10% tariff into the EU,”he said. “You could be talking about substantial parts of UK manufacturing ceasing to exist.”

Who wants a trade deal?

A decision by Johnson to override parts of the divorce agreement may help appease some members of his Conservative Party, but it could also undermine Britain’s ability to secure new trade deals in the years to come.

Britain will no longer be covered by trade deals negotiated by the European Union at the end of this year, and the country is trying to replicate as many of those as possible, while also pursuing new agreements with countries that do not have EU deals, such as the United States.

But intentionally breaking international law makes other governments less likely to engage with the United Kingdom. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the most powerful elected official in the Democratic Party, is worried that a move to override the divorce treaty could undermine the fragile peace on the island of Ireland (Northern Ireland is part of the United Kingdom).

“If the UK violates that international treaty and Brexit undermines the Good Friday accord, there will be absolutely no chance of a US-UK trade agreement passing the Congress,” Pelosi said in a statement on Wednesday.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson attends a virtual press conference at Downing Street.
On Friday, the United Kingdom scored a victory when it clinched a trade agreement with Japan, largely replicating the agreement that country has with the European Union.

But there’s still a very long way to go. Assuming the EU-UK talks collapse, only 10% of UK trade is covered by agreements, including the Japan deal. And even if Britain succeeds in signing up more countries to free trade deals, violating international law could unnerve foreign investors who are looking for a predictable business environment.

“If you’re located in a country that has a trade deal with the United Kingdom and you’re thinking about investing in selling into the United Kingdom or in using UK inputs in your production, you will feel slightly less secure about whether the current arrangements that make it profitable will persist,” said Professor L. Alan Winters, a director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory at the University of Sussex.

What happens next has the potential to set the British economy on a path for years to come. There are only weeks remaining in which to reach a new trade deal and avoid new tariffs and other barriers.

“We hope that we’ll eventually recover from Covid-19, but Brexit is permanent,” said Winters.

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Meet the senators who will be in charge if Dems win the Senate

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Potential committee chairs include 79-year-old Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) at Budget; 80-year-old Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) at Appropriations; 87-year-old Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) at Judiciary; Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) at Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs; Mark Warner (D-Va.) at Intelligence; and Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) at Foreign Relations.

The disparate group shows how seniority pays off in the Senate, where if you last long enough, you can end up with a gavel.

Democrats will tackle a wide array of issues if they control the chamber come January. For starters, they are expected to begin rolling back many of the Trump administration’s actions — on everything from climate change to immigration, health care and taxes. And Democrats, likely with a fellow party member in the Oval Office, would push their own progressive agenda, including oversight of tech giants, infrastructure, energy and environmental programs.

Here’s who would have critical roles in a Democratic-controlled Senate.

Robert Menendez

Often an antagonist of the progressive left when it comes to foreign policy, Menendez would reclaim the Foreign Relations Committee’s gavel, which he held from 2013-15. The New Jersey Democrat was acquitted on federal corruption charges two years ago, and he has challenged the Trump administration on an array of national security crises that have arisen over the past four years, including the president’s decision to pull U.S. forces out of northern Syria.

In an interview, Menendez said he wants to “restore the centrality of the committee and its importance in foreign policy” — the panel has largely taken a back seat in recent years — and will prioritize a “rebuilding” of the State Department, which has seen its budget reduced.

Ron Wyden

In a Democratic Senate, the Oregon senator would take the reins of the Finance Committee, a powerful panel that had a critical role in shepherding the GOP tax cuts through the chamber. Under a President Biden, Democrats would roll back many of those tax cuts— and Wyden will play a pivotal role in making that happen.

Wyden said in an interview that he has discussed the subject with Biden’s team. He also wants to focus on pandemic relief, which remains stalled.

“We’re going to make sure that the lesson of the Great Recession is learned — you don’t take your foot off the gas in the middle of an economic recovery,” Wyden said of his potential chairmanship.

Dianne Feinstein

Whether Feinstein is chair of the Judiciary Committee in the 117th Congress is still an open question, although it seems unlikely at this point after her performance during the past several weeks.

The California Democrat infuriated progressive outside groups during the panel’s Supreme Court confirmation hearings for Amy Coney Barrett for being civil and deferential to the nominee and Republicans when the left — furious over Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s rush to fill the seat before Election Day — wanted the exact opposite. There remains speculation about whether Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) will replace Feinstein atop the committee, or whether she will step down of her own volition. Feinstein’s retirement is another possibility. Neither Feinstein nor her office would comment about her future on the panel.

If Feinstein does leave, Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) is next in line, although Democratic Caucus rules may prevent him from serving in leadership and as a committee chair simultaneously. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, (D-R.I.), a former U.S. attorney, is third in line.

Bernie Sanders

This is a fascinating scenario. The most liberal senator and former White House hopeful, a lawmaker who has long espoused the dramatic expansion of the federal government’s role in average Americans’ lives, is set to take over the Budget Committee gavel. Yet the federal deficit topped $3 trillion this year and is the largest since World War II, and the U.S. economy remains in tatters due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Sanders wants to reshape the focus of the Budget panel. “We’d create a budget that works for working families, and not the billionaire class,” Sanders said in a brief interview when asked about his agenda if he took over as chair. And if Schumer and the Democrats don’t get rid of the filibuster, Sanders’ committee would be involved in crafting reconciliation bills, allowing a potential Biden administration to push tax and spending bills through the Senate on a simple-majority vote.

However, if Biden wins, Sanders might not be in the Senate for long. POLITICO reported that Sanders has expressed interest in becoming Labor secretary in a possible Biden administration. But that’s far from certain, especially because Vermont’s Republican governor, Phil Scott, would be able to appoint a temporary replacement to Sanders’ seat.

Mark Warner

As vice chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Warner has maintained strong relationships across the aisle with the previous chair, Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.), and the current acting chair, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.). Even as the Intelligence Committee has been the epicenter of several Trump-related controversies over the past four years — most notably stemming from Russia’s interference in the 2016 election — Warner has avoided the partisan jabs that have defined the panel’s counterpart across the Capitol, the House Intelligence Committee.

If he becomes chair, the Virginia Democrat will play a critical role in shepherding national security nominees through the Senate — including a director of national intelligence and CIA director — who are not loyal to a political party or a president.

Maria Cantwell

The former tech industry executive, now in her fourth term, is in line to take over the Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee if Democrats are victorious. Cantwell, of Washington state, is cautious about efforts to rein in Big Tech, or break up Google, Amazon or Facebook, and she wants to hear more on antitrust concerns surrounding the tech giants.

“I don’t care who’s in charge next time, I’m going to be talking about how we realize that we’re in an information age and we prepare for the future,” Cantwell said in an interview. “We have a president that basically is ignoring the fact, just like along with the pandemic, instead of realizing we’re in a global economy and an information age and we need to make some adjustments to make sure there are rules in the marketplace and that you invest in job training and education and disruption techniques — smoothing out disruptions.”

Cantwell added: “But I’m a believer we live in this age, not that you can deny it or put your head in the sand. So I don’t care who’s in charge, we’re going to focus on that.”

Cantwell and Commerce Democrats are releasing a report soon analyzing the impact the tech giants have had on local journalism. Hundreds of local and regional newspapers have disappeared as ad revenue has dried up, while Google and Facebook dominate the online ad market. This issue has become a major concern for those worried that the death of local papers is a threat to democracy.

Sherrod Brown

Brown is an old-school blue-collar Democrat who has spent most of his life in public office. But it’s clear the financial services industry may not love Brown as chair of the Banking panel. In 2014, when it looked like the Ohio Democrat may become chair, industry officials called it “frightening.” Six years later, it may be just as scary to them, although progressive Democrats would love it.

Brown, who has made a focus of his career pushing for more affordable housing for the middle class, has called for dramatically ramping up rental assistance during the economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic. And he’s been outspoken on efforts by the Trump administration to weaken fair housing protections. Look for Brown to push both issues if he gets the gavel.

“First thing: We do a major emergency rental assistance. I mean it’s all about housing. The word housing has essentially been left out of that committee the last three or four years. So it’s all about that,” he said.

Brown clashed with Banking Committee Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) and moderate Banking Committee Democrats in 2018 over efforts to weaken Dodd-Frank, the landmark financial regulatory bill. Brown lost that fight, but he won’t lose many more as chair.

Patrick Leahy

Another old-school politician, Leahy has been serving in the Senate since 1975. If Democrats retake the majority, Leahy would become yet again the Senate’s president pro tempore — the senior-most member of the majority party, a position that puts him third in line to the presidency behind the speaker of the House and vice president.

Perhaps most important, though, Leahy would become chair of the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee. He and his counterpart, fellow octogenarian Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), have a productive working relationship and have shown that they can cut bipartisan deals together.

Leahy’s ascension to the helm of the Appropriations panel also underscores the role of seniority in the Senate. With Leahy atop Appropriations and Sanders chairing Budget, a small state like Vermont would have an outsize impact on federal spending, and it would almost certainly guarantee additional funds for the state.

Patty Murray

Murray, a member of Senate Democratic leadership, would take control of the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, the principal health care panel in the Senate. With the issue dominating recent elections — including this year’s cycle — the Washington state Democrat would be the face of the party’s efforts to protect and expand on the Affordable Care Act, which has come under assault from the Trump administration.

If Biden wins the White House, the Justice Department will likely drop its effort to invalidate the 2010 law in court, and Biden will work with Senate Democrats to develop a plan that vastly expands Obamacare, including the likely addition of a public option.

Gary Peters

Facing his own reelection fight, the Michigan Democrat’s ascension to the chair of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee is not yet certain. But Peters’ goals for the committee, if he becomes chair, are simple: restore bipartisanship.

The committee, the Senate’s chief bipartisan oversight body, has devolved into chaos and distrust over Chair Ron Johnson’s (R-Wis.) efforts to investigate Trump’s political enemies, including the Biden family and former top Obama administration officials.

Peters tends to lay low in the Senate and tout his bipartisan credentials, but he has been forced to take on a role of pushing back against Johnson’s investigations, which he says are politically motivated and intended to boost Trump’s prospects in the election.

“I take great pride in finding ways to work in a bipartisan way,” Peters said in a brief interview. “And the committee has traditionally always worked that way.”

Burgess Everett contributed to this report.

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Labour Frontbencher Yasmin Qureshi Is In Hospital After Testing Positive For Coronavirus

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Bolton South East MP Yasmin Qureshi announced on Facebook she was in hospital after testing positive for coronavirus (PA)

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A Labour shadow minister who tested positive for coronavirus a fortnight ago is in hospital being treated for pneumonia.

Yasmin Qureshi announced on Facebook she had been admitted to the Royal Bolton Hospital on Saturday after falling ill.

The 57-year-old MP for Bolton South East posted this morning: “Two weeks ago, I began to feel unwell.

“I then tested positive for Covid-19, so my family and I immediately self-isolated at home. I have not travelled to Westminster or anywhere else.”

The shadow international development minister added: “I continued to work as best I could remotely, attending virtual meetings and doing casework, but after 10 days, I began to feel much worse and on Saturday I was admitted to the Royal Bolton Hospital with pneumonia.  

“I’m being very well looked after and have nothing but praise and admiration for the wonderful staff at the hospital.  

“They have been amazing throughout the process and I would like to extend my thanks to everyone working here in such difficult circumstances.”

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer tweeted: “My thoughts are with my friend Yasmin Qureshi who has been admitted to hospital after being diagnosed with Covid-19.

“My thanks go to the staff caring for Yasmin at the Royal Bolton Hospital, along with NHS staff across the country who are on the frontline against Covid-19.”

Bolton has seen a surge in positive cases in recent weeks, moving from a seven-day average of fewer than 10 cases per day at the end of August to above 150 now and continuing to rise.

The region has been under extra lockdown restrictions for several months, and the government has been negotiating with local politicians about putting it into the highest tier of measures to try and drive down the spiralling infection rate, but is facing resistance from Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham over a financial aid package.

A former barrister who headed the criminal legal section of the UN Mission in Kosovo, Ms Qureshi was first elected in 2010 and served as a shadow justice minister for four years under Jeremy Corbyn, retaining her frontbench position when Sir Keir took over as Labour leader.

She is one of a number of MPs to have tested positive for coronavirus during the pandemic, including fellow Greater Manchester representative Tony Lloyd, who spent 25 days in hospital back in April with the disease.

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US election 2020: What does it cost and who pays for it?

US election campaigns can start years in advance and cost billions of dollars. Due to coronavirus, this year’s cycle looks a little different, but huge sums are still being spent ahead of the election on 3 November.

In 2016, the US elections cost an estimated $6.5bn. BBC Reality Check breaks down who paid for it and looks at how much 2020 might cost.

Motion graphics by Jacqueline Galvin

Produced by Jake Horton and Soraya Auer

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